The Path Forward
All value will be settled on public chains in the next decade.
If there’s one thing I’m willing to write publicly and stand behind, it’s this thesis:
All value on planet earth will be settled on public chains in the next decade.
I don’t know what the path is, what the exact chains are or what the currencies/monies are that power this — but that doesn’t matter. As long as I’m directionally correct about this thesis, everything else will fall into place in the right time.
I’m so invested in this thesis that if it doesn’t play out I’m happy to lose out 10 years of my life. While this may sound outlandish (or not if you’re a crypto head), being able to believe something much deeper than others allows you to construct different versions of the world relative to others out there.
Why a decade and not 5 years? Great question. Simple napkin math for this one. If we assume the internet launched in 1970 with ARPANET and the internet matured by 2020 we can say that roughly took a total of 50 years. One thing that Marc Andressen says is that crypto adoption will be faster than internet adoption because all the hardware is already laid out so really the software is the only layer that needs to be built out (we don’t need to put cables down the middle of the ocean anymore).
Bitcoin launched on 2009 and given we’re in 2023, that’s 14 years of existence already. In another 10 we have 25 years of crypto history completed. Wow. The probability of crypto taking longer to mature than the internet (50 years) feels relatively unlikely. Yes there are political considerations that come along with it since crypto disrupts money rather than information but given the state of the world right now I don’t see it being too ambitious.
There’s lots of questions buzzing around everyone’s mind around “what will cause the next bull run”. Doesn’t matter what causes it, simply believing it will happen is what matters more. If you agree with any of the what-ifs below then, sure, probably leave this industry now — but the likelihood of the below happening is close to 0. It’s like saying what if technological bubbles will stop happening and all innovation is a linear path ad-infinitum. What’s new and up will become old and down, only to repeat itself over again.
If there’s one clue that we have from the present day it’s that autonomous code agents are going to further speed up the time to intent for whatever us human beings desire. LLMs are not going to be using bank accounts, they’re going to be spinning up private keys or MPC wallets and transacting between each other at lightning speed. The world of software, productivity and knowledge is changing before our very eyes. To think that these powerful new tools won’t use programmable money is very directionally short sighted.
The beautiful thing about crypto is how slowly yet surely it continues to move. If you look closely behind each mania and panic you start to see order in the chaos of the plan starting to take more important pieces in the global chess board of money. Larger swings start to rest on very small hinges.
If the first clue is AI agents wanting to use crypto, the second and larger clue is the state of the existing financial system where we have a regime of increasing interest rates combined with money printing. The existing system looks more functionally broken and corrupt the more you look at it with less financially sophisticated people being the most impacted by the macro money games going on around them.
Crypto’s time is inevitable in this world, we have too much evidence based on the trends that are catching wind at this point in time. The exact path is still very much unknown but if you were to believe that the next financial system of the world is going to be built on what we’ve spent a decade building out, there’s suddenly a lot of use cases for all the tech we’ve been building out.
Don’t fade crypto, now is probably the last opportune time where the “use case” of crypto is uncertain to the world while the world reconfigures itself to present crypto the opportunities it will need to thrive in the coming decade.
In case you didn’t notice, I am bullish — more so now than ever.
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